May 13, 2017 - The Myth of Overpopulation

The Myth of Overpopulation

The year is 2022.  The city of New York has over 40 million people, most of whom are starving and half live on the streets.  The atmosphere has been ravaged by pollution.  The Earth is no longer able to support plant life, as we know it.  Animals, including those used for food, have almost vanished. 

That is the world predicted in the 1973 movie, Soylent Green.  As a kid in a suburban American high school, I was told the world would collapse shortly after the year 2000.  Greenhouse gases would choke our planet.  Overpopulation would cause wars over natural resources like water.  Billions would die of starvation.

Yet here we are in 2017.  That just is not the case.  When I was a teen and the world had 3 billion people, 1 billion did not have sufficient food every day, what we would term starving.  Today we have 7 billion, yet still 1 billion are starving.  Though the number is the same it means a smaller percentage is starving than in 1970.  The idea that overpopulation is real, I am recently discovering, is false.  The perpetuation of the myth, I believe, is political in nature, rather than scientific.

When I was a teen, I remember the predictions of population growth.  By 2015, we were predicted to have double what we have now.  Those same people said the time between each addition of a billion would be cut in half each time.  Neither of those has happened.  We are only at 7 billion, not 15 billion.  In fact, the time between 3 and 4 billion, 4 and 5 billion, 5 and 6 billion, and 6 and 7 billion have each been about 12 years.  We are growing at a steady rate, but not exponentially s predicted.  So what happened?

The reason we had a population explosion in the 19^th and 20^th centuries was because mortality rates dropped.  If you do a simple research into your family tree, you will discover few lived past 60 a hundred years ago.  Women died even younger because of difficulties giving birth.  More children died in their first year of life in the past.  Those are things of the past.  Babies live past one year.  Women survive giving birth.  People live past 60.  That caused the population to surge worldwide.

On the other hand, urbanization slowed birthrates.  People who lived on farms had more need for children to work the farm as they grew older.  But people who lived in cities did not need children to make a living, so family size decreased over time.  In 1970 there were less than 100 cities with a population of 1 million.  Today there are over 500 and that many more that will probably reach 1 million in 20 years. 

By 1985 we started seeing the birthrate decline each year, rather than grow.

Today the industrialized nations of the world, have a negative population growth or close to it.  Nineteen European countries have a negative population growth.  That means their population declines every year.  Japan’s population is declining too. Ukraine loses 1% of its population each year; Japan, Russia, and all of Eastern Europe are close.  The rest of Europe, South Africa, Eastern Asia, Canada, the Caribbean, and several other places around the world are getting close to zero population growth; immigration in most of those places accounts for any real growth. The United States is growing, but the White population is at zero growth; Hispanic population and immigration accounts for growth. The rest of the world is following close behind as birth rates are falling faster than death rates. 

Our population is getting older.  In the 70s, half of the population was younger than 15, but now it is younger than 25.  As the population gets older, we are finding more ways to distribute the resources.  That is why a smaller percentage is  starving.

It is now expected we will reach a population of around 9 billion (2 billion more than now) around 2040.  After that, our population is expected to slowly decline, a century later back to about what it is now, or lower.  That means kids born today, if they live to be 100, and they are expected to live to be 100, will see a world with a population about what it is now.

What does all this mean?  More people will continue to live in the cities, making them more crowded.  But rural areas will continue to be lightly populated.  If we continue to feed, clothe, house, and supply people with luxury items at the present rate, the people of the future will be more comfortable than they are today and will see a decreased need to have children to help them in their retirement years.  Our farms will continue to be more productive, feeding more and more people.  We will protect more wild areas, making our world greener than it is today.  

Why are we being told that overpopulation is going to destroy the planet when the facts show something different?  I believe it is political.  If people believe that the world is about to collapse around them, they will be willing to let government take over.  I am almost 60 and my entire life has seen a push toward a one-world government, that will limit our freedoms for the benefit of all mankind.  The United Nations, the European Union, and NAFTA are just such examples.  They allow you to be wealthy, but scare you into believing your wealth is about to disappear.  Will you have water in a decade?  Will you be able to eat as well when you are 80 as you eat now?  Will the billions of starving invade the US and take all that we have?  That is what they want you to think about, so you give them power.

As a Christian, I will never support a one-world government.  Who will be in charge?  Who will decide what freedoms are acceptable?  Will I be able to worship freely in this new one-world nation, or will my religion be accused of oppression?  Who decides things like abortion, family size, or euthanasia for the elderly?  How do we know this is not opening the door for the Anti-Christ?

Look for yourself.  Has the doom and gloom of Soylent Green happened?  Or something else?   I look out my window and see a beautiful world. 

I have two novels out and a third in the next few weeks. Found out more at this link.